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Will West Virginia have any effect on the nomination?

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  • Okay, so I haven't seen one bit of talk from the political pundits yet. All I've seen is the headlines stating that her big win last night has made her even more determined to stick it out and win. Do you think this is actually going to effect the race? Are we in for another change in momentum?
    Flag as inappropriate Posted by mamajama on 14th May 2008
  • No. Although she won 67% to 26% in WV, there were only 38 delegates to be won. Yes, she won the lion's share, but Obama conceeded this state to her well before the primary knowing that the math was clearly working in his favor. Even with winning about 30 delegates it doesn't give her the push she needs to bypass Obama in any way considering there are only 6 more primaries left and Obama only needs about 150 more delegates to win the 2025.



    John King from CNN did a wonderful job explaining the math in full yesterday. He did a scenario where Hillary wins every race from now till June 3rd by 60% and she still can't pull forward. He also said Obama only needs to win by 30% in each race in order to get to 2025. The math just isn't there for her.



    So, I believe she can bask in her temporary win b/c she feels it strengthens her argument to superdelegates that she is the best candidate, but just like the win - the momentum is only temporary and fleeting. Obama is slated to win big in Oregon and a couple other states, so with those wins and a small amount of superdelegates he still gets the nomination.



    GAME. POINT. MATCH. It's over!
    Flag as inappropriate Posted by caramelsugarberry38 on 14th May 2008
  • I’ll start by quoting Eleanor Roosevelt:

    "A WOMEN IS LIKE A TEA BAG, YOU NEVER KNOW HOW STRONG SHE IS UNTIL SHE IS IN HOT WATER!"



    Saying that I still believe that the game is never over until there is an official winner and until June 7th there's not. Hillary will not pull out because a winner never quits. I think this proves to her supporters that they made the right choice supporting her.



    Although the phenomenal win in WV did not pull her ahead of Obama it proved that she still has individuals out there supporting her, that don't want her to quit, and can make a difference and will.



    As far as the math without the 240 super delegates neither party can win if she sticks it out to the end. The aspiration that Hillary and her supporters have is that this does happen. This would have not been such challenge if Michigan and Florida delegates are seated because they are both huge Hillary supporters. This will be decided on May 31st. My fingers are crossed Hillary...



    We all have our hopes for whom our personal choices are, and I personally don't have anything unpleasant to say about Obama simply I feel she is more qualified for office. I being Hispanic have nothing against either party as far as nationality or gender. I think many people are supporting candidates for the wrong reasons without gathering data simply because of their gender and/or race. I simply feel that we can't take a chance with someone who says they will do allot and not knowing how, simply hoping that when the time comes they will know how to do it. She has the experience and power to correct and improve our country. She is also the only chance that we have to have a Democrat in office. This is my opinion so hopefully no one will be offended but I only speak or type..lol what I feel.



    There are only a few more states left and May 20th is one of the big ones which are Oregon and Kentucky there are 125 delegates at stake. There are a total of 235 left until June 7th which is the last one in PR with 63 delegates at stake. I believe the deciding votes are going to have to be from the super delegate’s b/c there are 240 left to decide.



    Hillary is doing the right thing by sticking it out to the end so she don't let anyone down and if she don't win she can still walk away with her head up high knowing that she tried.



    Hillary supporter 100%!!!!



    THE GAME IS NEVER OVER UNTIL THE STANDS ARE EMPTY AND A LOSER GOES HOME!
    Flag as inappropriate Posted by Cathy on 14th May 2008
  • Quoting: Cathy
    As far as the math without the 240 super delegates neither party can win if she sticks it out to the end. The aspiration that Hillary and her supporters have is that this does happen.




    Why the above scenario something to aspire to?



    Wouldn't having a divided Democratic party help strengthen the Rebublican party in the end?
    Flag as inappropriate Posted by Lylah M. Alphonse on 14th May 2008
  • Lylah.. Its something to aspire to b/c Hillary would still have a chance. Why doesn't Obama quit? Why would it have to be Hillary? I don't understand why you feel that she should quit simply b/c she is slightly behind? I wouldn't want to have a president who quits when the going gets tough; I am not sure why anyone would! Again, Like Eleanor Roosevelt said ""A WOMEN IS LIKE A TEA BAG, YOU NEVER KNOW HOW STRONG SHE IS UNTIL SHE IS IN HOT WATER!" Let’s just wait and see what Hillary can do!!! :>;)
    Flag as inappropriate Posted by Cathy on 14th May 2008
  • Quoting: Cathy
    I don't understand why you feel that she should quit simply b/c she is slightly behind?




    I don't feel that Hillary should quit because she's behind -- never said that I did. I'm wondering why the idea that neither person can win if either person sticks it out is a good thing for the country in general



    I love that Eleanor Roosevelt quote. It's one of my favorites... she also said, "Do what you feel in your heart to be right- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't." Great advice from a great lady!
    Flag as inappropriate Posted by Lylah M. Alphonse on 14th May 2008
  • Sorry about my comment I didn't mean you in general I meant the individual's who keep stating she should quit. I don't think it’s a good thing but I don't think he quitting will help either.



    I love Eleanor Roosevelt her quotes are wonderful!
    Flag as inappropriate Posted by Cathy on 14th May 2008
  • I mean I don't think Hillary quitting would help either...lol sorry
    Flag as inappropriate Posted by Cathy on 14th May 2008
  • Cathy says:

    "...without the 240 super delegates neither party can win... The aspiration that Hillary and her supporters have is that this does happen. This would have not been such challenge if Michigan and Florida delegates are seated."



    I don't understand your math Cathy (240 delegates?). Obama only needs 141 delegates and Clinton moving forward needs 307. There are only 6 more states and together they equal 236 delegates. Even if Clinton wins each state by 60%, she will not make up the 307 delegates she still needs to make the 2025 (let alone the 2209 w/Florida and Michigan). She is slated to lose badly in Oregon and to lose by some margin in Montana and SD. Obama only has to win each state by 30% (by no more than he did last night in WV) and he's still got the 141 he needs to get to 2025. Again, time and math not on her side.



    I really respect your support of Clinton and admire your enthusiasm, but would like to know how you determined your math. As you stated, on May 31st the Ethics Committee will meet, but according to Donna Brazile, a high ranking committee member and superdelegate, she states that more than likely Florida and Michigan's delegate will be split evenly or proportionately between Obama and Clinton (still not giving her enough).



    This split would give Obama a very nice push towards his needed 141 much quicker than Clinton. Unfortunately even with FL and MI, she still will not get the bulk of the delegates she needs to make the cut before Barack would. That's what's the sad truth about this whole debacle and why people believe (not just Obama supporters, but her own people who are defecting) that time is just not on her side and what she's doing by staying is self-indulgent, and divisive b/c it's splitting the Democratic Party by not allowing the winner to be declared so focus can begin on the fall election.



    So, you're right when you say the game is never over until the stands are empty and a loser goes home, but this isn't baseball and the odds are stacked so high against her. It looks like she'll be the only one standing by herself with what's left of her adoring fans playing a game that has been over long time ago. That's not good for her, her ego or her legacy or the Party as a whole.
    Flag as inappropriate Posted by caramelsugarberry38 on 14th May 2008
  • caramelsugarberry38, sorry don't know your name.. But my math I believe is okay b/c the website I keep track on states we only have 5 more states totaling 235 delegates and 240 super delegates that have yet decided whom to support. I understand that Obama needs less than Hillary BUT that does not mean she does not have a chance.. The calculation showing if she wins this amount or if he wins by this amount but the truth be told the calculations are simply predictions so until the day comes it is not legit. Things can change in her favor as many states already have, when the polls showed she was going to lose them when the day came she didn’t. As far as Donna Brazile, a high ranking committee member and super delegate that supports "Obama" will of course state that but has yet to be decided until May 31st, and again things can change in her favor, as well as John King from CNN who will leave no hopes open for Hillary since he is not a supporter. Need I say more! I just think one should not count their chickens before they hatch!



    As far as Hillary standing by herself, I doubt it I'm sure her true supporters or shall I say adoring fans like you stated will be right beside her of which I might add Obama needs to actually win the Presidency if he swipes the nomination in the first place.



    I believe it would be worse for her to pull out and be a quitter besides, what does she have to lose??? NOTHING she will just continue to gain the respect of her supporters
    Flag as inappropriate Posted by Cathy on 14th May 2008

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